Rishi Sunak’s announcement that the General Election is on July 5th will bring joy to Labour who have been begging him to call an early GE. They are undoubtedly expected to win with only size of majority in question.

Labour will probably recapture most seats in Scotland from the SNP and regain the northern Red Wall seats that were lent to the Conservatives for Brexit.

History of British politics show that the electorate tire of the ruling government after about 10 years and vote in the opposition who then govern for the next decade or so. So I expect Labour to win in July and next GE and even perhaps a 3rd term. Thereafter they will be out of office for a similar period.

For many decades after WW2 Stroud was considered a Conservative stronghold but of late has become a marginal constituency. It would fall to Labour should voting reflect the national trend but the Conservatives have in Siobhan Bailley an MP who has not dropped any brickbats and is well liked within the constituency and Westminster.

She knows that the opposition votes are shared between Labour, LibDems and the Greens. For years the Liberals / LibDems had strong support in Stroud which produced regular Tory wins but when their support fell off a cliff Labour won constituency. Too early to know if they are making a comeback but in the recent council election The Greens did well and if they do same in July Labour would be in trouble. However Reform has promised a candidate in every constituency and that would reduce Tory support. In truth Reform will probably lose their deposit but in a tight contest their number might prevent a Conservative win.

Usually I’m confident of forecasting GE result for Stroud but not this year especially that the boundary commission has moved Painswick & Upton to the North Cotswolds. That will undoubtedly have major implementations in that Painswick was once true blue but has latterly voted Green.

Tom Newman

Stroud