The fight to be Stroud MP would have been even tighter in 2017 under proposed boundary changes, estimates show.

Labour’s David Drew would still have beaten the Conservative’s Neil Carmichael but by less than 100 votes, according to a political prediction site.

The Electoral Commission has proposed redrawing MP’s constituencies ahead of the next general election.

Under the plans the Stroud constituency would no longer contain Dursley, Cam and the Vale while Minchinhampton - which is currently in the neighbouring Cotswolds constituency - would return to the seat.

Stroud News and Journal:

The current Stroud constituency

Stroud and the Cotswold district councils - which count votes at elections - say they do not have records of how these areas voted in 2017.

However, a pollster - Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus - has come up with estimates based on local election results and demographic factors like age.

The Conservatives edged out in Cam and the Vale while Labour took Dursley under his predictions for last year’s general election.

But the Conservatives won in Minchinhampton by a landslide, taking the town with over 1000 votes, according to the Electoral Calculus model.

Stroud News and Journal:

The proposed Stroud constituency

The net effect is an estimated reduction of Mr Drew’s majority from 687 to 96.

However, Electoral Calculus stresses such tight numbers are within the margin of error of its model, making Stroud effectively a dead heat.

In reaction to the proposed boundary changes, Mr Drew said removing Cam and Dursley from Stroud would “damage community cohesion”.

“I am disappointed by the Boundary Commission’s recommendations, particularly the loss of Cam and Dursley,” he said in a statement.

“While I welcome the return of Minchinhampton to the Stroud constituency, Dursley and Cam have always culturally been part of the Stroud district and part of our valleys and vale community.

“It will damage community cohesion to separate them from Stroud.”

Stroud is considered to be a key Conservative target seat by the party, as reported by party grassroots website ConservativeHome.

View Electoral Calculus's modelling in full here: electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Stroud